Bitcoin gains 12%, mirrors gold as trade war, recession fears mount

• Bitcoin
  gained
  12%
  in
  two
  weeks
  to
  April
  22,
  showing
  resilience
  amid
  US-China
  tariffs.
• Observers
  note
  Bitcoin
  decoupling
  from
  stocks,
  behaving
  more
  like
  gold
  (safe
  haven).
• US
  plans
  for
  a
  Strategic
  Bitcoin
  Reserve
  potentially
  bolster
  its
  asset
  status
  (Nansen
  CEO).

Bitcoin
has
demonstrated
notable
strength
in
recent
weeks,
seemingly
shrugging
off
the
escalating
trade
tensions
between
the
US
and
China
that
have
unsettled
broader
financial
markets.

This
resilience,
marked
by
a
significant
price
increase,
is
fueling
observations
that
the
cryptocurrency
is
increasingly
behaving
like
a
traditional
safe-haven
asset,
akin
to
gold,
rather
than
mirroring
the
volatility
often
seen
in
tech-heavy
indices
like
the
Nasdaq.

Divergence
amid
trade
turmoil

In
the
two
weeks
leading
up
to
April
22,
Bitcoin
registered
a
solid
12%
price
gain.

This
upward
movement
occurred
even
as
the
trade
dispute
intensified,
with
the
US
imposing
tariffs
reported
up
to
125%
on
China,
prompting
reciprocal
measures
from
Beijing.

Unlike
many
other
assets
sensitive
to
global
trade
disruptions,
Bitcoin
appeared
relatively
insulated,
strengthening
the
argument
for
its
potential
role
as
a
store
of
value
during
geopolitical
uncertainty.

Alex
Svanevik,
CEO
of
crypto
intelligence
firm
Nansen,
highlighted
this
trend,
noting
Bitcoin’s
apparent
“decoupling”
from
traditional
stock
markets.

“Unlike
altcoins
and
major
indexes
like
the
S&P
500,
Bitcoin
has
remained
relatively
stable
despite
the
global
trade
tensions,”
Svanevik
observed,
according
to
the
analysis.

However,
he
cautioned
that
while
resilient
to
specific
trade
issues,
Bitcoin
remains
susceptible
to
broader
macroeconomic
headwinds,
particularly
the
growing
fears
of
a
potential
economic
recession.

Bolstering
the
safe-haven
narrative:
US
reserve
plans

Adding
another
layer
to
Bitcoin’s
evolving
status
is
the
concept
of
a
potential
US
Strategic
Bitcoin
Reserve.

Plans
outlined
in
a
presidential
executive
order
suggest
the
government
intends
to
hold
Bitcoin,
initially
comprising
assets
seized
in
criminal
investigations.

More
significantly,
the
order
details
potential
future
strategies
for
acquiring
more
Bitcoin,
possibly
funded
through
tariff
revenues
or
by
re-evaluating
the
Treasury’s
gold
certificates
to
generate
surplus
funds,
potentially
avoiding
the
need
to
sell
existing
gold
reserves.

Svanevik
believes
such
“regulatory
developments
will
play
a
significant
role
in
Bitcoin’s
growth
as
a
global
asset,”
potentially
enhancing
its
legitimacy
and
appeal.

Recession
shadow
looms
despite
crypto
gains

While
Bitcoin
charts
its
course,
the
macroeconomic
outlook
remains
clouded.
Concerns
about
a
potential
US
recession
are
intensifying,
acting
as
a
significant
counterweight
to
bullish
sentiment
in
risk
assets.

A
recent
report
from
JPMorgan
notably
increased
its
estimated
probability
of
a
US
recession
occurring
in
2025
from
40%
to
60%.

The
report
underscored
that
existing
tariffs,
particularly
citing
the
high
145%
tariff
on
China
in
this
context,
continue
to
pose
a
“significant
threat
to
global
growth.”

Against
this
backdrop,
the
Federal
Reserve
is
anticipated
to
begin
easing
monetary
policy,
likely
starting
in
September
2025
with
further
rate
cuts
expected
through
January
2026.

While
monetary
easing
could
stimulate
the
economy,
it
might
also
influence
demand
dynamics
for
assets
perceived
as
riskier,
potentially
including
Bitcoin,
depending
on
how
investors
weigh
inflation
hedges
versus
growth
prospects.

Navigating
an
uncertain
future

Bitcoin’s
trajectory
appears
increasingly
shaped
by
a
complex
interplay
of
factors.

Its
resilience
during
the
recent
trade
friction
supports
the
narrative
of
it
maturing
into
a
gold-like
store
of
value.

Continued
institutional
interest
and
potential
government
actions
like
the
Strategic
Reserve
could
further
solidify
this
perception.

However,
the
looming
threat
of
a
broader
economic
downturn
and
ongoing
regulatory
developments,
particularly
in
the
US,
remain
critical
variables.

As
global
economic
anxieties
persist,
Bitcoin’s
ability
to
maintain
its
appeal
as
a
hedge
against
turbulence
will
be
closely
watched.